Tsunami and Insurance – A Disquisition
Held on 12th January 2005
A Multitude of persons – scientists, reporters, journalists including a wide and varied variety of laymen, specialists and experts in their own field have written about this deadliest disaster - only from the moment of its occurrence. Details of it and the gravity of a “Tsunami” was known only to scientists, meteorologists and seismologists. The general public – Nationally and Internationally, knew very little or nothing – and those who knew took it as a matter-of-fact, very lightly.
It is said that there are no catastrophes or disasters in nature. We define disasters by contrasting them to familiar, frequent, and harmless events -- the fall of night, a rain shower, birds singing. Unfortunately, most of us take little note of ordinary phenomena. And since the majority of us consider that nature per se is no longer the home of the divine spirit, we disassociate its daily forms from the spectacular or the extreme. These disturbances come upon us, not as a part of the continuous whole or events integral to the drama of nature, but as mutations, intrusions, freaks, or something described in insurance parlance as "acts of God," which turns nature ugly as a result of some mysterious power or for some baffling, inexplicable purpose.
Great storms, floods, landslides, and quakes are, in the grand scale of time, normal events recurring again and again, more or less regularly. Lightning, if we could watch long enough, strikes the same place many times. While thousands of humans perish in a single stormy night, the redwoods survive two thousand years, and some mountains have witnessed millions of years of wind, ice, and sun.
The powerful events, that seem so unusual to us, therefore, are disasters only because our lives are short and our bodies fragile and man by nature, weak.
Being an Insurance Professional, I would like to take this opportunity to present an overall disquisition on the subject in question.
What actually happened on that fateful day of December 26, 2004 was actually an undersea Indian Ocean earthquake, generating “Tsunamis” that were among the deadliest of disasters in modern history. These tsunamis devastated the shores of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand even reaching Somalia on the East Coast of Africa, nearly 2,800 Miles (4500 Km.) west of the epicenter of the quake – The waves reached as high as 50 feet (15 Metres).
At the time of writing, At least 160,000 people are known to have died as a result of the tsunamis and the count is still on. The true final toll may never be known due to bodies swept out to sea, but is likely to be considerably higher. Relief agencies warn of the possibility of many more deaths to come as a result of epidemics and starvation.
This rare Megathrust earthquake began in the Indian Ocean off the western coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia at 12:58:53 am UTC, almost 59 minutes after midnight, that is around 06:58:53, Local Sri lankan time. The quake occurred at a magnitude of 9.0 on the Richter Scale and was the largest since the 9.2-Magnitude Good Friday Earthquake off Alaska in 1964 and this is the Fourth largest since 1900.
It should be noted that the earthquake was initially reported as 6.8 on the Richter Scale On the moment magnitude scale which is more accurate for quakes of this size say the scientists. Subsequently the earthquake's magnitude was reported as 8.1 by the U.S. Geological Survey, but after further analysis the USGS increased this first to 8.5, then to 8.9, and finally to 9.0.
Since 1900, the only earthquakes that were recorded with a greater magnitude were the 1960 – Great Chilean Earthquake - (magnitude 9.5) and two Alaskan quakes:
The 1964 Good Friday Earthquake in Prince William Sound – (magnitude 9.2) and the March 9, 1957 Earthquake in the Andreanof Islands - (magnitude 9.1).
The only other recorded earthquake of magnitude 9.0 was in 1952 off the southeast coast of Kamchatka.
Each of these megathrust earthquakes also spawned tsunamis (in the Pacific Ocean), but the death toll from these was significantly lower — a few thousand for the worst one — probably because of the lower population density along the coasts near affected areas and the much greater distances to more populated coasts.
Experts say that the Hypocentre was at 3.316°N, 95.854°E, some 100 miles (160 km) west of Sumatra, at a depth of 18.6 miles (30 km) below mean sea level - initially reported as 10 km. This point is the extreme western end of the earthquake belt described as “the Ring of Fire” and accounts for 81% of the world's largest earthquakes. Apart from the “Tsunamis” The quake itself, was felt as far away as Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand and the Maldives.
The earthquake was unusually large in geographical extent. An estimated 750 Miles (1,200 km) of faultline slipped some 60 ft (20 metres) along, what is described by scientists as the subduction zone denser oceanic plates slip under continental plates in a process known as subduction. Subduction earthquakes are particularly effective in generating tsunamis. where the India Plate dives under the Burma Plate.
(Subduction is a process where the denser oceanic plates slip under continental plates. Subduction earthquakes are particularly effective in generating tsunamis.)
The seabed of the Burma plate is estimated to have risen several metres vertically up over the India plate, creating shock waves in the Indian Ocean that traveled at up to 500 Miles Per Hour ( 800 km/h), forming Tsunamis which, while less than a metre high in deep water, resulted in huge waves when they reached land.
Scientists say that The India Plate which is part of the great Indo-Australian Plate underlying the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal drifts northeast at an average of 2 inches or 6 cm/yr or 60 Feet (20 metres) every 330 years. It is shocking indeed to note that
This Earthquake that occurred on 26th December 2004, had moved this fault to the 330 years distant in a few seconds.
The India Plate meets the Burma Plate (which is deemed to be a portion of the great Eurasian Plate. At this point the India Plate subducts the Burma Plate which includes the Nicobar Islands, the Andaman Island and Northern Sumatra. The India Plate slips deeper and deeper beneath the Burma Plate until the increasing temperature and pressure turns the subducting edge of the India Plate into magma which eventually pushes the magma above it out through the volcanoes - Magma is the pasty or doughy mass molten or pasty rock material. This process is interrupted by the locking of the plates for several centuries until the build up of stress causes their release resulting in a massive earthquake and tsunami.
It should be noted that coasts that have a land mass between them and the tsunamis' location of origin are usually safe; however, in this instance, the logistics of the situation was varied - the tsunami waves diffracted around such land masses. And the Indian state of Kerala was hit by tsunamis despite being on the western coast of India. The western coast of Sri Lanka also suffered substantial impacts due to this diffraction of the tsunami waves. And again, distance alone is no guarantee of safety: You could see that Somalia was hit harder than Bangladesh despite being much much farther away.
And also because the 1,200 km of faultline affected by the quake was in a nearly north-south orientation, the greatest strength of the tsunami waves was in an east-west direction. Bangladesh, therefore, which lies at the northern end of the Bay of Bengal had very few casualties despite being a low-lying country.
Due to the distances involved, the tsunamis took anywhere from fifteen minutes to seven hours (for Somalia) to reach the various coastlines. The northern regions of the Indonesian island of Sumatra were hit very quickly, while Sri Lanka and the east coast of India were hit roughly two hours later. Thailand was also struck about two hours later, despite being closer to the epicenter, because the tsunami travelled more slowly in the shallow Andaman Sea off its western coast.
The first warning sign of a possible tsunami is the earthquake itself; however tsunamis can strike thousands of miles away, where the earthquake is only felt weakly or not at all. Also, in the minutes preceding a tsunami strike the sea often recedes temporarily from the coast. People in Pacific regions are more familiar with tsunamis and often recognize this phenomenon as a sign to head for higher ground.
However, around the Indian Ocean, this rare sight reportedly induced people, especially children, to visit the coast to investigate and collect stranded fish on as much as 2.5 km of exposed beach, with fatal results.
One of the few coastal areas to evacuate ahead of the tsunami was on the Indonesian island of Simeulue, very close to the epicentre.
On Maikhao beach in northern Phuket, Thailand, a 10 year old British girl named Tilly Smith had studied tsunamis in her geography class at school and recognised the warning sign of the receding ocean. She and her parents warned others on the beach, which was evacuated safely.
Tsunamis are not generated by earthquake alone. A tsunami can be generated by any disturbance that displaces a large water mass from its equilibrium position. In the case of earthquake-generated tsunamis, the water column is disturbed by the uplift or subsidence of the sea floor. Submarine landslides, which often accompany large earthquakes, as well as collapses of volcanic edifices, can also disturb the overlying water column as sediment and rock slump down-slope and are redistributed across the sea floor. Similarly, a violent submarine volcanic eruption can create an impulsive force that uplifts the water column and generates a tsunami. Conversely, super-marine landslides and cosmic-body impacts disturb the water from above, as momentum from falling debris is transferred to the water into which the debris falls - for e.g. Asteroids that might collide with the earth - While the probability of collision is small, the effects including tsunamis could be devastating, suggesting that it should be carefully considered in relation to other natural disasters. It is one of the few natural disasters that could be averted by technical means.
As a tsunami leaves the deep water of the open ocean and travels into the shallower water near the coast, it transforms. A tsunami travels at a speed that is related to the water depth - hence, as the water depth decreases, the tsunami slows. The tsunami's energy flux, which is dependent on both its wave speed and wave height, remains nearly constant. Consequently, as the tsunami's speed diminishes as it travels into shallower water, its height grows. Because of this shoaling effect, a tsunami, imperceptible at sea, may grow to be several meters or more in height near the coast. When it finally reaches the coast, a tsunami may appear as a rapidly rising or falling tide, a series of breaking waves, or even a bore.
As a tsunami approaches shore, that it begins to slow and grow in height. Just like other water waves, tsunamis begin to lose energy as they rush onshore - part of the wave energy is reflected offshore, while the shoreward-propagating wave energy is dissipated through bottom friction and turbulence. Despite these losses, tsunamis still reach the coast with tremendous amounts of energy. Tsunamis have great erosional potential, stripping beaches of sand that may have taken years to accumulate and undermining trees and other coastal vegetation. Capable of inundating, or flooding, hundreds of meters inland past the typical high-water level, the fast-moving water associated with the inundating tsunami can crush homes and other coastal structures. Tsunamis may reach a maximum vertical height onshore above sea level, often called a runup height, of 10, 20, and even 30 meters.
The total energy released by the earthquake in the Indian Ocean has been estimated as 2.0 exajoules i.e. 2.0×1018 Joules (the figure 2 followed by 18 Zeros). Using the formula E = mc2, this amount of energy is equivalent to a mass of about 49 lbs. ( 22 kg ). Note that each unit of the magnitude scale represents a 31.6-fold increase in energy; every two units signifies 1,000 times more energy.
According to Tad Murty, vice-president of the Tsunami Society, the total energy of the tsunami waves that struck the Indian Ocean coast was about five Megatons (5 Million tons) of TNT (Tri-nitro-Toluene or Dynamite). This is more than twice the total explosive energy used during all of World War II including the two Atomic Bombs attack on Hiroshima and Nagasaki; but still a couple of orders of magnitude less than the energy released in the earthquake itself.
Scientists say that the land mass also has shifted. Based on one seismic model, some of the smaller islands southwest of Sumatra may have moved southwest up to 20 m (66 ft). The northern tip of Sumatra, which is on the Burma Plate may also have moved southwest up to 36 m (118 ft). Movement was likely both vertical as well as lateral. Measurements using GPS (Global Positioning Systems and satellite imagery are being used to determine the extent and nature of actual geophysical change.
The shift of land mass and the massive release of energy, therefore, have very slightly altered the Earth's rotation. The exact amount is yet undetermined, but theoretical models suggest the earthquake may have shortened the length of a day by as much as three micro-seconds and caused the Earth to minutely "wobble" on its axis by up to 2.5 cm (1 inch).
However, due to tidal effects of the Moon, the length of a day increases by 15 micro-seconds every year, so any rotational speed-up due to the earthquake will be quickly lost.
This shows a great need for people to be educated right round the globe regarding environmental hazards however, insignificant it may be. Governments, the private sector including the Insurance Industry should me concerned about taking some special interest in this field.
A Summation of this disquisition tells us:
1. That the Earthquake that occurred on 26th December 2004, had moved the earth’s crust faultline to a 330 years distant in a few seconds. This means that there is a possibility of considerable damage in the oceanic plates and continental plates. Hence a recurrence of deadly earthquakes with terrible repercussions can occur even in regions designated as ‘non-earthquake’ areas. A possibility of increased frequency of occurences too cannot be ruled out.
13. Tsunamis can occur at any time, day or night.
How should the Insurance Industry universally take up this challenge?
Based on the facts outlined as above, which are far from exhaustive, It is time that action is taken by all responsible authorities, all over the world, to effect certain changes in Insurance Laws. The adoption of conventions and ratification of same must be universal. Old legal definitions have to be changed in spite of having case laws as precedents – because those situations and incidents that necessitated such definitions are now no more. Insurance has to be modernized if it is going to be effective and if it is to be within the meaning of its functions in the spreading of risks and sincerely to serve humanity at large.
Let us take a look at the doctrine of Proximate Cause in Insurance, which is indeed the clause that determines whether an insurance claim is to be settled or not. The legal definition of Proximate Cause states as follows:
“Proximate Cause means the active, efficient cause that sets in motion a train of events which brings about a ‘res It’, without the intervention of any force started and working actively from a new and independent source.”
In other words an insured to recover under his policy, the train of events leading from the insured peril to the actual loss suffered must be unbroken. It has been further corroborated by the fact that to treat proximate cause as if it is the cause that is proximate in time is out of the question., and it is said that the The cause which is truly proximate is that which is proximate in efficiency.
If this is the definition, it states that even if you are covered for “the action of the sea, tidal wave, high water or tsunami" – insurance companies can deny liability on the basis that the proximate cause, the active, efficient cause that sets in motion these devastating effects occurred some thousands of miles away and hence they are not responsible for the claim.
It is therefore, imperative that the proximate cause needs a new definition, a new description and a new characterization. It has to be properly and suitably amended and/or qualified to serve a practical purpose.
Majority of the Household Policies as well as, on request, in respect of commercial insurance policies "impact by space debris or debris from a rocket, satellite or aircraft" could be covered., but it does not cover "the action of the sea, tidal wave, high water or tsunami".
Interestingly, Tsunami is defined as "An unusually high wave or series of waves caused by an earthquake or volcanic eruption" only . But Tsunami generated by asteroid impacts or underwater landslides would not meet this definition, and Insurers will probably still excluded it as "action of the sea". Hence, it is vital and crucial, in the light of basic information provided in this article as well as from the scientific point of view, to have a proper, practical and suitable definition for Tsunami. If however, there is already a definition used by insurers, it should be amended or qualified accordingly.
The other extraneous and/or additional/supplementary perils covered by an Insurance Policy with special reference to Storm, Tempest, Cyclone, Floods, Hail, Thunderbolt, Earthquake, Subterranean Fire, Subsidence and landslip, including Aircraft and/or other aerial devices or articles dropped therefrom, may have to be revised, also because of the same reasons.
In this era where the entire world is just within the reach of practically everyone’s finger tips, so to speak, all these additional perils may not turn out to be localised perils. Tons and tons of space debris are in orbit – together with meteors and meteorites as well as asteroids which may collide with the earth, nuclear warheads, nuclear testing on land and sea may have destroyed or cracked the earths crust to unpredictable dimensions as well as a host of other dangerous activity can trigger unexpected disasters world-wide – hence the doctrine of proximate cause in insurance becomes universal and as suggested it should be looked into by insurers and governments for a fitting and appropriate wording to adopted universally.
Let us look into further considerations which would help insurers, governments and the general public to educate them or draw up national and international policies as well as Insurance Policies: -
If you are on land
ix. If there is time to move your boat or ship from port to deep water (after a tsunami warning has been issued), you should weigh the following considerations:
About 35 years ago, 24 countries around the Pacific set up the Pacific Tsunami Warning System. A group of seismic monitoring stations and a network of tide gauges are used for detection. The biggest problem with this system is that it is difficult to predict how large and destructive the resulting waves will be. Scientists are currently working on better predictive tools. Innumerable suggestions are being put forward by various authorities on the subject which should be studied and suitable systems adopted for each country and each area.
M.Z.M. NAZIM
Director (retired) - Hayleys Insurance Services (Pvt) Ltd.,
(Member of the Hayleys Group of Companies.)